Technology Forecast

applied science foretell is considered to be vital in todays occupation environment. There cast off been many success stories as well as failures. anticipate engine room impacts many aspects from acquiring a new engineering to developing a new technology. The course lead start with reviewing several(prenominal) methodologies and then leave alone analyze those impacts and how to make them beneficial for the organizations through many case studies, professional and research articles. effort Studies are selected from Harvard Business inform Case Studies. words are selected from journals such as Technology divination and tender Change.GRADING AND DELIVERABLES Specific Deliverable Cases (team in household)30% presentations Project (team)40%Paper + Presentation Readings (individual)30%2 article discussions TOTAL100% GUIDELINES FOR DELIVERABLES CASES Cases will be analyzed and presented in class by teams. You should read and get yourself familiar with the case before the cl ass, READINGS You will be assigned 2 articles to discuss in class. PROJECT recognise an emerging technology as a team and develop a forecast using Technology prophecy Tools.Examples of such projects will be provided. Your team is required to present the progress and results of your project during the scheduled generation in class. hand presentations should not exceed 20 minutes and the last presentation will be limited to 45 minutes. You also will need to submit a report which should follow TFSC journal guidelines for a journal paper. Your report should include a literature search justifying the composition and methods used. CASES 1. Strategic supplying at joined Parcel Service, David A. Garvin, Lynne C. Levesque, Product 306002 2. foretelling the acceptation of a New Product, Elie Ofek, Product 505062 AND Forecasting the Adoption of E-Books, Elie Ofek, dick Wickersham, Product Number 9-505-063 3. Illinois Superconductor Corp. Forecasting Demand for Superconducting Filt ers, Mohanbir Sawhney, Lisa Damkroger, Greg McGuirk, Julie Milbratz, John Rountree, Product KEL096 READINGS display to Technology Forecasting 1. Linstone, H. A. , TFSC 1969-1999. scientific Forecasting and companionable Change, people 62, anesthetises 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 1-8. 2. Ayres, R. U. What have we learned? technological Forecasting and kind Change, ledger 62, reduces 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 9-12. 3. Martino, J. P. , Thirty years of change and stability. Technological Forecasting and neighborly Change, Volume 62, bothers 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 13-18. 4. Porter, A. L. , Tech foretelling an empirical perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, pick outs 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 19-28. 5. Linstone, H. A. , The 21st nose candy Everyman as Faust technology, terrorism, and the multiple perspectives approach.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 3, edge 2003, Pages 283-296. T echnology Forecasting Techniques 6. Mishra, Somnath, S. G Deshmukh and Prem Vrat, Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology , Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 69, Issue 1, January 2002, Pages 1-27. 7. Technology futuritys Analysis Methods Working Group, Technology futuritys analysis Toward integrating of the field and new methods, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issue 3, March 2004, Pages 287-303. 8. Silberglitt, R. , Hove, A. , and Shulman, P. Analysis of US energy scenarios Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 4, May 2003, Pages 297-315. 9. Rowe, G. and G. Wright, The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool Issues and analysis, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 15, Issue 4, October 1999, Pages 353-375. 10. Lena Borjeson, Mattias Hojer, Karl-Henrik Dreborg, Tomas Ekvall and Goran Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques Towards a users guide, Futures, Volume 38, Issue 7, September 2006, Pages 723-739. 11. Winebrake, J. J. , and Creswick, B. P. The future of hydrogen fueling systems for pane An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 4, May 2003, Pages 359-384. 12. Sager, B. , Scenarios on the Future of Biotechnology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 68, Issue 2, October 2001, Pages 109-129. 13. Modis, T. , Technological forecasting at the stock market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issue 3, November 1999, Pages 173-202. 14. Devezas, Tessaleno C. , Harold A. Linstone and Humberto J.S. Santos, The proceeds dynamics of the Internet and the long wave theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 72, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 913-935. 15. Ilonen, Jarmo, Joni-Kristian Kamarainen, Kaisu Puumalainen, Sanna Sundqvist and Heikki Kalviainen, Towar d automatic forecasts for diffusion of innovations, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 182-198. 16. Martino, Joseph P. , A comparison of two composite measures of technology , Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 44, Issue 2, September 1993, Pages 147-159.uphill Technology Forecasting Techniques 17. Inman, Oliver Lane, Timothy R. Anderson and Robert R. Harmon, Predicting U. S. jet fighter aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982 A tussle between regression and TFDEA, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 9, November 2006, Pages 1178-1187. 18. Anderson, Timothy, Rolf Fare, Shawna Grosskopf, Lane Inman and Xiaoyu Song, Further examination of Moores law with data envelopment analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 69, Issue 5, June 2002, Pages 465-477. 19. Barley, S. R. , What Can We Learn from the tarradiddle of Technology.Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, Volume 15, Issue 4, September 1998, Pages 237-255. 20. Bowonder, B. , T. Miyake, and B. Muralidharan, Predicting the future Lessons from evolutionary theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 51-62. 21. Guice, J. , Designing the Future The Culture of New Trends in Science and Technology. Research Policy, Volume 28, Issue 1, January 1999, Pages 81-98. 22. Phaal, R. , Farrukh, C. J. P. , and Probert, D. R. , Technology Roadmapping A Planning Framework for Evolution and Revolution.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issues 1-2, January-February 2004, Pages 5-26. 23. Kayal, A. , Measuring the Pace of Technological Process intimation for Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 60, Issue 3, March 1999, Pages 237-245. 24. T. U. Daim, G. Rueda, H. Martin, and P. Gerdsri, Forecasting Emerging Technologies Use of Bibliometrics and Patent Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 8, October 2006, Pages 981-1012. 25. Watts, R. J. and A. L. Porter, Innovation Forecasting.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 56, Issue 1, September 1997, Pages 25-47. SCHEDULE Subjects to be CoveredAssignment/Readings 1/4 Teams form 1/11 Introduction to Technology Forecasting Technology Planning Case Study 1 Strategic Planning at United Parcel Service Case Preparation and Presentations Article raillery Articles 1-5 1/18UNIVERSITY CLOSED 1/25 Extrapolation by Regression Guest speaker system Jisun Kim Project Proposal Presentations 2/1 Delphi, Analogy, Scenarios, Environment Monitoring, Growth Curves In Class Exercise Cable TV Diffusion Article Discussion ?Articles 6-16 2/8 Case Study 2 Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product Case Preparation and Presentations Project Progress Presentations 2/15 Emerging Technology Forecasting Methods TFDEA Guest verbaliser Tim Anderson 2/22 ?Emerging Technology Forecasting Methods Bibliome trics, Patent Searches, Article Discussion? ?Articles 17-25 3/1 Project Results Presentations 3/8 Case Study 3 Illinois Superconductor Corp. Forecasting Demand for Superconducting Filters Case Preparation and Presentations 3/15 Final Reports